WASHINGTON–What’s the forecast for the 2020 election and President Trump’s re-election? It’s going to come down to 15 states, says one person.
Jason Roe, who heads the political consulting firm Roe Strategic and who works with Republican candidates, including having worked as an advisor to George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, offered some thoughts on the next election to attendees at NAFCU’s Congressional Caucus here.
Reflecting on 2016, he noted Trump won 46% of the popular vote, along with 304 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton 48% of popular vote and 227 electoral votes.
“One thing we know about the 2016 election is a lot of polls underestimated Donald Trump’s political strength,” said Roe.
Roe said Trump has 164 electoral votes from 21 states “in the bag” for the 2020 election, and would need 106 more electoral votes. The democratic candidate has 15 states and 187 electoral votes locked up, and needs 83 more to win the election he said.
“One thing to pay attention to throughout this election is that Trump’s approval numbers are bad, but they have always been bad. So I wouldn’t pay a lot of attention to the potential match up polls,” said Roe. “At end of this process, regardless of who the democratic candidate is, that candidate is going to own some of the far left positions and other whacky ideas.”
Among Roe’s observations and predictions:
- Red state Texas is tilting blue, but it’s not going to happen in 2020 and it will probably “another decade off before you start seeing statewide offices going to Democrats.”
- Arizona and Georgia are similarly on their way to becoming blue states.
- There are 15 toss-up states heading into the 2020 elections, representing 187 electoral votes. Those 15 states are Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, Maine, Colorado and Virginia.
- “Florida is always an interesting state, but Trump is pretty well positioned in Florida.
- Wisconsin: “Normally, it wouldn’t be a swing state, but this is going to be a battle ground. It’s going to be key to a Trump re-elect.
- Michigan: “This is actually a pretty red state, but the trade war is going to affect Michigan and Ohio as much as any state.”