Used Car Values Will Resume Decline, Forecast Predicts

LAWRENCEVILLE, Ga.—Don’t expect the recent trend of used vehicle values holding steady or actually increasing to continue, says Black Book.

Used Car

The company’s Used Vehicle Retention Index for October (116.3) shows a +1.5% increase over the last 12 months (114.6) and a +0.2% change since September (116.0).

“October’s used vehicle retention activity may have represented the last positive change of the 2018 campaign, as seasonal depreciation patterns began to take hold throughout the month. Cars especially saw their run of positive changes begin to lose steam, with strong retention trends that persisted throughout much of the year. While most truck segments performed slightly better than cars, they still saw depreciation accelerate during the month,” Black Book stated.

The segments with the highest month-over-month gains in the Retention Index were:

  • Compact crossover/SUV: +0.95%
  • Sub-compact car: +0.88%
  • Mid-size luxury CUV/SUV: +0.53%

While the segments losing the most were:

  • Full-size luxury CUV/SUV: -0.81%
  • Premium sporty car: -0.46%
  • Small pickup: -0.45%

The Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index is calculated using Black Book’s published Wholesale Average value on two- to six-year-old used vehicles, as percent of original typically-equipped MSRP. It is weighted based on registration volume and adjusted for seasonality, vehicle age, mileage, and condition.

“This Index data can be especially valuable this time of year because it is designed to give automotive professionals and portfolio managers an analytical look into the trends driving segment performance across cars and trucks,” said Anil Goyal, executive vice president, operations.

Section: Standard
Word Count: 351
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Copyright Year: 2019
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